I am not a military strategist, neither am I a political strategist nor a diplomat. No! I am none of these. Rather, I am just a man with a love for the game of Chess.
Although, I lay no claim to being a champion of any sort when it comes to this game, I do have a reasonably good level of understanding of some of the intricacies of the game. According to chess historians, chess is one of the oldest games in existence, that originated around 6th century AD. One of the most interesting and most oft repeated story credits the holy saint, Sissa with the invention of the game at the courts of the Indian King,
Balhait.
The King was appalled by the superfluity of gambling and the overwhelming craze with and for games of pure luck. He summoned Sissa and requested
the wise man to create a game, which would require pure mental qualities
of prudence, foresight, valor, judgment, endurance, circumspection and
analytical and reasoning ability. This was to replace and or eradicate the doctrine of chance outcomes where luck dictated the outcome of the throw of dice.
The game of chess is one which is loved the world over. It was at some time more of a game for kings and strategists and one could not lay claim to being a good strategist or military commander if one could not pull ones' weight on the 8x8 board. This is because the game not only emphasizes critical objective thinking and calculation, it also emphasizes deftness of thought under pressure when played against the clock. It indeed is a game of great minds.
And this is no wonder, that the Russians took to and are still taking to it with all seriousness. President Vladimir Putin is an avid and accomplished chess player and his political manoeuvrings and diplomatic deftness are a sight to behold.
It is a given that in chess, in other to get or have the upper hand you must be a number of steps ahead of your opponent and this requires being able to think ahead, envisage your opponents choices of moves and counter them even before they are made on the board.
The Russians, in the past encouraged their military, bureaucrats and the general populace to not only play the game but play it with the understanding that warfare, real life sociopolitical manoeuvrings and even dialogue and diplomacy are all actually a game of chess and to get the upper hand, you must be a number of steps ahead of your opponent(s). It is therefore my opinion and mine alone that the Japanese political class DO NOT quite understand this.
Hence, they have taken and keep taking for granted the necessity of being a deal of steps ahead of their neighbours especially as the history shared with their neighbours is not one that either side looks back at with a sense of joy and gratitude. Considering the past animosity and the love lost, it is only requisite that steps are taken and measures put in place by being a great deal of steps ahead of their neighbours but of course with peaceful intentions and an attitude of humility rather than one of humiliation.
In terms of the neighbours, of particular reference is China, a nation that doesn't seem to be willing to let the past be past, taking with it only the lessons learned and moving on to a future where she can be a just world power with no animosity towards her neighbours.
In being ahead, a lot of factors, conditions and scenarios must be envisaged because in this political and diplomatic arena, Japan cannot afford to be caught off guard.
A number of times, I have noted to friends and colleagues that in matters between Japan and China, Japan [Japanese diplomats or bureaucrats] always tend to drop the ball. It is almost like they are blind sided by China's actions (or reactions). When they could have been seated thinking about the next step China would or might take in reaction to Japan's preemptive response to China's unceasing provocative moves, we find that Japan ends up becoming a firefighter, struggling aggressively to put out the fires that could have been avoided in the first instance.
A case to illustrate this point involves the collision between a Chinese fishing vessel and the Japanese Coast Guard ship and how the aftermath was handled. Well, when this incident happened I commented to my colleague that if I was in charge of the situation. I would immediately send a strongly worded letter protesting the trespass into Japan's territorial waters and attached to the letter would be a bill for the cost of repairs to the Coast Guard ship for the damage wrought by the Chinese fishing vessel.
However, to my bemusement of why this was not done by the Japanese government and amazement of why this was done by the Chinese government, I suddenly realized that the Chinese government had thought this through before the fishing vessel set sail and that the Japanese government had failed to run scenarios on all the possible and likely actions of their Chinese counterpart with respect to the Senkaku Islands.
Also, immediately after the Japanese government purchased the Senkaku islands from the private citizen owners of the island bringing it under Japanese administration, I noted to my colleague that Japan would do well to establish a "No Fly" zone over the Senkaku islands to prevent any form of snooping from the Chinese side. Unfortunately, the Japanese bureaucrats where not thinking about this. I was shell shocked when I read a few days ago that China had established a "No Fly" zone over the Senkakus.
While I am not anti-China, my thoughts in anticipation of the Chinese move are just simply my chess mode switching "ON" when I think about the Japan-China Senkaku brouhaha. As a matter of fact, I think China is doing very well on this chess board and on the larger board in general. With the growing strength of this Asian nation, it would be no surprise if in the next 10 - 15 year China becomes the main world power, the number one economy and the nation dictating the pace in world affairs.
Surely, it would be better to let diplomacy and dialogue take their rightful place so that a meaning peaceful agreement or arrangement can be reached and it must be understood that Japan cannot keep waiting for the US to think for it particularly with regards to this issue or similar issues. (Yes, the US is Japan's ally and is bound to protect and fight for Japan in the event(God forbid) of a war but we must also remember that financially China owns the US considering that China is the US's greatest creditor).
Oh !, now you see it, the conflict of interest, besides it is only common sense that the US look after her own interest first. Even if the US were a god and Japan a mere mortal, we still must remember that the gods would not do for men, what men must do for themselves. So as long as Japan is not declaring war on China or any of its neighbours nor acting in a provocative manner, then some common sense issues that require swift action should be carried out swiftly rather than waiting for the"green light" or "go ahead" from the Governor-General. Japan cannot keep dropping the ball and not expect to loose ground.
I read recently that some Japanese airlines have started submitting flight plans (route plans) or schedules involving flight paths over the Senkakus to the Chinese government. This in itself is an indirect acceptance by the Japanese corporate organizations and the general citizenry of China's administrative control over the Senkakus and thus an acquiescence that the Senkakus are legally Chinese territory.
I am of the opinion that this action undermines the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (MLIT) with particular import and reference to the Civil Aviation Bureau and therefore the Japanese government viz a viz its stand on the ownership of the Senkakus. What we now have is the government taking one stand and corporate organizations taking an opposing stand.
One wonders if the flight (route) plans or schedules were submitted directly to the Chinese government or via the MLIT (Civil Aviation Bureau). If the former, the airlines can be cautioned, upbraided or chastised but if the latter then one can conclusively decipher that the government is in a state of confusion, not correctly understanding that going along with the submission of such lists to the Chinese government inadvertently implies their recognition of the Senkakus as a part of China's territory and thus I would say that they have successfully dropped the ball again, a clear indication that the Japanese political class or bureaucrats are probably not thinking fast and deep enough.
It is time for Japan to go back to thinking deep, thinking fast and thinking outside of the box too. This would help guarantee that Japan gets ahead economically, socio-politically and in most if not all matters of diplomacy and I believe that this is what the present Prime Minister is also trying to (or has been trying to) encourage.
Thinking, deep, fast and outside the box might just be the the three arrows of Mr Abe's thinking process.
Enough Said !.
Watch out for my piece on Nihon o Torimodo sou....(日本を取り戻そう）. coming soon.